Childhood questions became lifelong quests
Dinosaurs鈥 demise, Martian environment and Earth鈥檚 climate fascinated Brian Toon as a kid, captivated him as a scientist, and propelled him to a wide-ranging research career marked by a common theme: tiny airborne particles
Since he was a kid, Owen Brian Toon has puzzled over 鈥渨eird problems鈥: What killed the dinosaurs? What鈥檚 Mars like? What causes Earth鈥檚 climate to change?
Early on, he had another question: Is there really a Yeti? 鈥淲hen I was 10 years old, that was a big problem,鈥 says Toon, now a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado.
The alleged Yeti, or 鈥渁bominable snowman,鈥 was debunked decades ago. 鈥淭his is a problem solved everywhere, except on television programs shown regularly to our children and falsely advertized as science or history.鈥
But Toon has spent much of his professional life studying鈥攁nd broadening knowledge of鈥攖he other three problems. His years of research on these topics have earned him the 2011 Roger Revelle Medal from the American Geophysical Union.
That distinction is bestowed on one person a year by the 60,000-member organization 鈥渇or outstanding contributions in atmospheric sciences, atmosphere-ocean coupling, atmosphere-land coupling, biogeochemical cycles, climate or related aspects of the Earth system.鈥
By studying Mars and Venus, Toon and other scientists gained greater insight into the climate of the Earth. The greenhouse effect鈥攖hat gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat in a planet鈥檚 atmosphere鈥攈as been known for more than a century. But manmade greenhouse gases aren鈥檛 the whole story, Toon notes.
Venus, which has atmospheric CO2听concentrations 100,000 times higher than that of Earth, is 鈥渉otter than a self-cleaning oven,鈥 Toon observes. But while Mars鈥 atmospheric CO2听concentration is about 20 times higher than Earth鈥檚, Mars is colder than Antarctica.
鈥淚t isn鈥檛 just the distant location of Mars from the sun that makes it cold, either,鈥 says Toon, because Venus uses little more sunlight than Mars does. 鈥淩ather, it is the way that water vapor and carbon dioxide have evolved over geologic history.听 It is low water vapor that makes Mars so cold today. Possibly giant impacts warmed Mars in the distant past by injecting lots of water into the Martian atmosphere.鈥
Aerosols are implicated in the demise of the dinosaurs, which are thought to have been wiped out by the effects of a gigantic asteroid that slammed into Earth 65 million years ago. 鈥淚 was thinking, how could asteroids kill dinosaurs? 鈥 You have these microscopic particles killing the largest carnivores on the planet.鈥
Toon and others suggest that searing heat from the re-entry of the impact debris 鈥渂asically broiled the dinosaurs alive.鈥 Widespread fires then released a thick blanket of soot that blocked sunlight, cooled the planet and halted photosynthesis. Mass extinction followed.
Studying the effects of an asteroid impact led Toon and others to the study of the worldwide effects of nuclear war: That work concluded that most of the world鈥檚 humans would be killed by widespread nuclear war.
Toon is a top authority on the aftermath of nuclear war. The term 鈥渘uclear winter鈥 stems from a landmark paper published in Science in 1983 and written by R.P. Turco, Toon, T.P. Ackerman, as well as the late J.B. Pollack 听and Carl Sagan.
鈥淣uclear winter鈥 denotes a worldwide drop in temperatures due to the dust and soot from firestorms that would block sunlight after nuclear war.
The 1983 nuclear-winter study assumed a war involving 5,000 megatons of explosions鈥攁bout 2,500 times the explosive power of all the bombs detonated in World War II.
In recent years, Toon has led or contributed to several studies showing that even a 鈥渓imited nuclear war鈥濃攊nvolving an iota of the firepower studied previously鈥攚ould devastate the stratospheric ozone layer and plunge the world into devastating frigidity. Global average temperatures would be colder than any seen in the last thousand years.
In 2006, Toon helped lead two studies that found that even a small-scale nuclear war鈥攐ne involving 100 15-kiloton explosions鈥攃ould slaughter as many people as were killed during World War II and disrupt the world鈥檚 climate (and food production) for a decade.
Toon noted that nations such as Pakistan and India have the capacity to detonate 50 nuclear bombs, each having 15 kilotons of explosive power鈥攖he power of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
In 2007, Toon, Rich Turco of UCLA, Alan Robock of Rutgers University and others published a paper in Science emphasizing the devastation that could follow a 鈥渓imited,鈥 or regional, nuclear war involving 100 15-kiloton bombs. Such a war would involve a trivial portion of the world鈥檚 nuclear arsenal: less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the world鈥檚 nukes.
Besides the immediate casualties, Toon and his colleagues found, such a war would cause massive fires that could propel 1 million to 5 million tons of soot into the high atmosphere.
World political leaders aren鈥檛 paying sufficient attention to nuclear proliferation, Toon says. 鈥淭hey think that if India and Pakistan had a war, 鈥楾hat won鈥檛 affect us.鈥欌
Toon and Robock summarized this work in a Scientific American article published last year. They made a forceful case for disarmament: 鈥淩apid reduction of the American and Russian arsenals would set an example for the rest of the world that nuclear weapons cannot be used and are not needed.鈥
Toon鈥檚 research has also helped explain another global threat: the destruction of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica. He correctly predicted that polar stratospheric clouds containing nitric and hydrochloric acid form in the Antarctic stratosphere in winter. He also predicted that the polar stratospheric clouds would catalyze chemical reactions that produce reactive chlorine, which destroys stratospheric ozone.
鈥淪usan Solomon suggested some ozone-destroying reactions that might occur. I showed why they would occur. Maggie Tolbert and Mario Molina showed they did occur in the lab, and I helped lead aircraft expeditions that showed they did occur in nature.鈥
鈥淭here鈥檚 a theme here of particles,鈥 Toon observes, noting that this theme underlies much of his research.
As Toon notes, aerosols are of many types and exhibit more complex behaviors than do greenhouse gases.
鈥淐翱2, once you say its name and measure it in one place, you know almost everything you need to know about it,鈥 Toon says. 蜜桃传媒破解版下载 20 percent of the carbon dioxide you emit driving home today will linger in the atmosphere thousands of years. The slow rate of change makes CO2听easier to understand.
But aerosols emitted in the last week are offsetting the climate effects of much of the greenhouse gases so far emitted, Toon adds.
Further, aerosols can have cooling or warming effects. Aerosols interact with about 10 percent of all the Sun鈥檚 energy, reflecting much of that back into space. Most particles, dust or sea salt or sulfates, can scatter sunlight, blunting the warming effect of sunlight.
Dark particles, such as diesel soot or forest-fire smoke, can absorb sunlight and have a warming effect, or they can fall on snow, reducing surface reflectivity and making snow melt faster.
Aerosols can also be deadly. 蜜桃传媒破解版下载 30,000 Americans die each year from ailments traced to airborne particulates. Coal-fired power plants are a major source of this morbidity.
While there鈥檚 much left to learn, Toon notes 鈥渁 growing anti-science movement鈥 in America. In public-opinion surveys, more than 40 percent of the U.S. population reported believing the Earth is about 6,000 years old (rather than its actual age of 4.5 billion years).
Toon asks: 鈥淲hat does this say about science education? What does this say about our ability to communicate the facts of science?鈥
Noting that there is a 鈥渉uge science-education problem in the United States,鈥 Toon says the solution is not straightforward. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just information transfer. It鈥檚 resistance to knowing the information, and confusion produced by the entertainment industry and others often in the name of science or news.鈥
There鈥檚 also a view that facts are open to interpretation. 鈥淔acts are not open to interpretation. Facts are facts.鈥
Toon earned his Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University in 1975 with Professor Carl Sagan. He became a NASA research scientist in 1978 and joined the CU faculty in 1997. He has been elected a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Association. He is recognized by ISI Thompson Scientific as one of the most highly cited and influential geosciences researchers.
Additionally, he was recognized by the United Nations鈥 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for significant contributions to the body of work honored by the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
As for the Roger Revelle Medal, which he will receive in San Francisco in December, Toon notes, 鈥淚t鈥檚 nice to have your colleagues say you鈥檝e done some interesting things.鈥
鈥淭his award recognizes students and post-docs and all my collaborators,鈥 he adds. 鈥淚鈥檓 having a fun time exploring all these topics, and they鈥檙e doing all the work.鈥
Plus, 鈥淚鈥檓 still working on the same problems that I was trying to understand when I was 10.鈥
Except, of course, the Yeti.